Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:21:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67ba…46b6 world 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%15W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$2
politics 21% +$1
other 16% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 24% 6% -9.8%
≤90d 17 +0.8% -8.8% 24% 6% -9.8%
all 44 -0.1% -9.6% 34% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 5% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses15 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage317d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $42 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $58 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $24 −$2 -7%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $40 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $11 +$2 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $80 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $39 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $15 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $43 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August? Aug 15 $19 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 15 $39 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 14 $17 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Aug 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $4 $0 -2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $4 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 12 $45 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on August 31? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 11 $47 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 10 $2 $0 +20%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 10 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 10 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Aug 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 75-76°F on Au Aug 10 $5 $0 +1%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Aug 09 $46 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 08 $1 $0 -37%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 08 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $42 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $42 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 15h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 35h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 26¢ $23 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $12 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 28¢ $7 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $39 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $9 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $5 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $7 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.64 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records