Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67be…037a other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate12%15W / 112L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$311per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$19
politics 27% −$15
sports 13% +$34
crypto 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 127 -1.9% -11.2% 12% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 4% -9.5%
10% -19.7% 2% -18.2%
15% -27.5% 2% -26.1%
20% -34.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×6.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses15 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage132d
Avg bet$311
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $52 $0 +0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $267 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $340 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $255 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,027 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $261 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $286 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $454 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $287 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $280 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $306 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $296 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $233 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 14 $247 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $255 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $1,311 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $591 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $217 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $620 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $314 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 17 $232 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $299 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $315 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $225 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $239 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $270 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $315 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $262 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 13 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $270 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $309 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $44 1h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 6h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 9h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 9h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 4d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 6d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 17d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 17d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $207 18d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $207 19d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $213 24d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $213 25d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 25d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $255 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $207 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $207 26d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 26d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $286 26d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $286 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 27d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 27d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $211 28d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $211 28d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $258 28d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $258 28d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $287 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 390 history records