Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x67bf…f983 sports 242 markets active 2h ago coverage 30d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$34,433 (+24%) realized +$34,433 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate40%98W / 144L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day69.5pace
Fees−$2,634est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,327
7 days+$4,739
14 days+$20,115
30 days+$24,890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$26,623
other 29% −$1,632
crypto 1% −$55
world 0% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +42.9% +29.3% 30% 25% -6.4%
≤30d 242 +32.7% +20.1% 40% 32% +6.1%
≤90d 242 +32.7% +20.1% 40% 32% +6.1%
all 242 +32.7% +20.1% 40% 32% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.1% 32% +6.1%
10% +8.6% 27% -4.0%
15% ← realistic here -1.9% 22% -13.3%
20% -11.5% 20% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$597) neutral
Persistence
early +11% → late +55% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$533 vs −$190 · ×2.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.91 per $1 lost it wins $1.91
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$34,433
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses98 / 144
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,634
Open positions0
Markets (closed)242 / 242
History coverage30d
Avg bet$600
Trades / day69.5
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 242 Trades
no open positions (94 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $597 −$132 -22%
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $138 −$138 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $500 +$255 +51%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $52 +$1,495 +2902%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $52 +$4,643 +9010%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 26 $24 −$24 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $509 −$29 -6%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 25 $464 −$149 -32%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $250 −$250 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $41 −$40 -97%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,517 −$1,024 -68%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,735 −$1,713 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $503 −$492 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $500 +$321 +64%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $86 −$85 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $2,154 +$1,393 +65%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $240 +$24 +10%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $256 +$1,000 +390%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $504 −$140 -28%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $250 −$250 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $518 −$507 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $300 +$593 +197%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $546 −$50 -9%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $857 −$853 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $307 −$300 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $475 −$83 -18%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1,144 −$188 -16%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $1,317 −$198 -15%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $509 +$562 +110%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,103 −$227 -20%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1,011 +$400 +40%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $40 −$40 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $550 −$46 -8%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1,505 +$500 +33%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $740 −$169 -23%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $307 −$300 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,613 −$91 -6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $443 +$31 +7%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 21 $504 +$454 +90%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $239 +$2,566 +1073%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $288 +$597 +208%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $299 −$100 -34%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,702 −$250 -15%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $505 −$59 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 14¢ $95 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 25¢ $462 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 27¢ $333 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 26¢ $167 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 1¢ $38 3h
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 2¢ $100 3h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 88¢ $752 3h
France leading at halftime? SELL Yes 90¢ $3 3h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $500 4h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 93¢ $1,546 19h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL No 94¢ $4,695 19h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY No 1¢ $52 19h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 3¢ $52 19h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 2¢ $0 20h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 2¢ $2 20h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 2¢ $18 20h
Türkiye leading at halftime? BUY No 3¢ $5 20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $410 20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $100 20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $0 20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $385 20h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 23¢ $118 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 3¢ $0 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 3¢ $21 20h
Türkiye vs. United States: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 3¢ $30 20h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 43¢ $480 25h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $509 25h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2¢ $26 26h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL No 21¢ $314 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.90 · official $0.00 (match) · 2147 history records