Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:23:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
67 0x67c0…04f4 crypto 221 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$145 (+4%) realized +$117 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%106W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$84
14 days−$78
30 days−$291
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$345
world 40% +$349
other 7% +$48
sports 1% −$5
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -14.3% -22.5% 54% 50% -28.3%
≤30d 180 -22.9% -30.2% 46% 43% -21.1%
≤90d 216 -15.5% -23.6% 49% 47% -9.1%
all 216 -15.5% -23.6% 49% 47% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 47% -9.1%
10% -30.9% 39% -17.8%
15% -37.6% 31% -25.8%
20% -43.7% 23% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized+$117
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses106 / 110
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)216 / 221
History coverage84d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 216 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 94¢ $150 $174 +$24 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 55¢ $147 $145 −$2 (-1%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 88¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? No 38¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia to score first vs. United States? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $20 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$8 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 21 $15 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $30 +$6 +21%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 21 $30 +$11 +37%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$1 +26%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$3 +300%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.42 · official $377.35 (match) · 536 history records