Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
67 0x67c2…a0b0 crypto 290 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$56 (+1%) realized +$53 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%276W / 5L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day26.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$13
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$63
politics 4% +$4
finance 2% −$19
other 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 214 +0.6% -9.0% 98% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 281 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 281 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.4%
all 281 +1.3% -8.3% 98% 0% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 0% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 0% -17.2%
15% -25.1% 0% -25.2%
20% -32.5% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses276 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)281 / 290
History coverage11d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day26.9
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 281 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? No 98¢ 94¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +8%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $13 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $13 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 30m
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 8AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $13 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.34 · official $169.51 (match) · 581 history records