Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:24:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67c3…a272 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,032 (+11%) realized +$1,032 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate77%10W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$737per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$997
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 77% 77% -19.0%
≤30d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 77% 77% -19.0%
≤90d 13 +1.3% -8.3% 77% 77% -19.0%
all 13 +1.3% -8.3% 77% 77% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 77% -19.0%
10% -17.1% 38% -26.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.1% 31% -33.8%
20% -32.5% 0% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$174 vs −$914 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,032
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses10 / 3
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage2d
Avg bet$737
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $1,005 −$1,000 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $101 +$13 +13%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $995 −$990 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1,994 +$286 +14%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,120 −$751 -67%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $1,005 +$493 +49%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 +$5 +47%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $1,030 +$368 +36%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $303 +$119 +40%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $518 +$81 +16%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $287 +$56 +20%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $502 +$81 +16%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $705 +$240 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 88¢ $502 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 82¢ $503 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score SELL No 83¢ $114 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 78¢ $390 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $101 2h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 74¢ $605 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $2,280 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 96¢ $1 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $112 9h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $822 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Norway 21¢ $369 10h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $1,498 10h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 55¢ $279 11h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $1,000 12h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $1 12h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $4 13h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 64¢ $841 14h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 81¢ $1,059 24h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL Türkiye 100¢ $1,399 26h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 69¢ $4 28h
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $6 28h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 73¢ $1,030 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $422 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $599 29h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 71¢ $303 30h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $518 31h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $344 32h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $584 32h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 86¢ $502 33h
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $945 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records