Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67c3…6342 other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,711 (-56%) realized −$2,718 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit24%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,460
7 days−$2,460
14 days−$2,460
30 days−$2,460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$1,896
politics 18% −$858
sports 1% −$26
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-40.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -50.7% -55.4% 16% 16% -78.5%
≤30d 20 -47.2% -52.2% 20% 20% -78.4%
≤90d 22 -39.1% -44.9% 23% 23% -75.3%
all 27 -33.7% -40.0% 30% 30% -61.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.0% 30% -61.8%
10% -45.7% 22% -65.4%
15% -51.0% 19% -68.8%
20% -55.8% 15% -71.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 79% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -73% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -93% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$207 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$2,718
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage167d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Yes 14¢ 28¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+96%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $48 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Players vs Isurus (BO3) - CCT South America Series #9 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19? Jun 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Will PAOK win on 2026-02-19? Jun 22 $140 −$140 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Jun 22 $249 −$249 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Jun 22 $224 −$224 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 22 $259 −$259 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Jun 22 $349 −$349 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 22 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Jun 22 $283 −$283 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 22 $697 −$697 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $21 +$9 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $142 +$522 +367%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$3 +30%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 $0 -5%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 04 $894 −$858 -96%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $127 +$229 +180%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-21? Feb 28 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $489 +$383 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 21 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 21 $1 +$1 +59%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Jan 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes $48 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes $48 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $21 5h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 19h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 20h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $132 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $4 8d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $693 9d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $76 9d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $244 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $251 10d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 23¢ $59 43d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 43d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 23¢ $198 43d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 47d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $223 47d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL Yes $13 49d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes $7 49d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL Yes $7 49d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the SELL Yes $16 49d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes $41 49d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes $31 49d
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the BUY Yes $31 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.88 · official $16.88 (match) · 91 history records