Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:31:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67c9…c68e world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 298d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate28%12W / 31L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% $0
other 25% $0
politics 20% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 4% $0
finance 3% +$1
culture 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.3% -9.8% 12% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 23% 0% -9.6%
all 43 -0.2% -9.7% 28% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

298d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses12 / 31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage298d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $76 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $37 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $73 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $40 +$1 +1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 17 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Dec 17 $3 $0 -2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $13 $0 +2%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $13 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in September? Sep 28 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $2 $0 -9%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $3 $0 -8%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Sep 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 02 $36 $0 +1%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 29 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 28 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Aug 28 $29 $0 -1%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 28 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 27 $32 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $40 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $40 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $36 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $36 13h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $23 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $24 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $40 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $40 28h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $21 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $21 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $36 47h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $37 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $3 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $34 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $37 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $21 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $16 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $37 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $37 25d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $36 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $41 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $40 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $40 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $40 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $6 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $21 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $25 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 157 history records