Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:59:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x67ca…93b6 crypto 369 markets active 0h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$101 (-0%) realized −$96 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate69%252W / 115L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$286per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$0
14 days+$20
30 days−$320
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$44
politics 9% +$22
sports 1% −$120
weather 0% +$9
other 0% $0
world 0% −$11
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.9% -13.9% 77% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 77 -6.1% -15.0% 69% 13% -11.4%
≤90d 248 -2.4% -11.7% 76% 12% -9.9%
all 367 -2.9% -12.1% 69% 18% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 18% -9.6%
10% -20.5% 13% -18.3%
15% -28.2% 11% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$28 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses252 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)367 / 369
History coverage604d
Avg bet$286
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $108 $108 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? Yes 90¢ 80¢ $45 $40 −$5 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $311 −$8 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $827 −$10 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $616 +$3 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $554 +$15 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $281 +$8 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $591 +$11 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $96 +$4 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $297 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $250 +$25 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $811 +$16 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $127 +$6 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $296 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $312 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $144 +$6 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $494 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $91 −$6 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $340 +$7 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $94 +$6 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $300 +$6 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $762 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 09 $342 +$7 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $576 −$11 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $95 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $92 +$7 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $182 +$18 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $602 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $143 +$7 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $298 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $398 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $44 +$5 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $663 −$8 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $44 −$11 -25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $480 +$20 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $130 −$43 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $89 −$14 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $76 +$13 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $13 +$7 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $91 −$81 -89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 3? Jun 02 $15 −$9 -62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $196 −$47 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $117 −$53 -45%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $88 −$20 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 18m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 20m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $590 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $293 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $208 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 98¢ $85 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $300 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $350 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $297 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $23 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 96¢ $335 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $82 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $4 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $7 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $2 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $99 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.61 · official $147.61 (match) · 1783 history records