Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x67cd…f41c other 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 610d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-0%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%12W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$279per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 75% −$13
politics 16% −$5
other 7% +$6
sports 1% −$15
crypto 1% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 +5.4% -4.7% 11% 5% -7.5%
≤90d 49 +1.2% -8.5% 18% 12% -10.0%
all 63 +0.7% -8.8% 19% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 10% -9.7%
10% -17.6% 10% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 10% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

610d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses12 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage610d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $28 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $13 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $79 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $9 +$9 +105%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $10 $0 -0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi Jun 08 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $12 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $17 $0 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 30 $15 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $12 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $71 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies May 17 $7 +$10 +129%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $68 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $63 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 24 $64 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $69 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $62 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $70 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $70 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $4 +$7 +172%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $11 +$5 +48%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 08 $5 +$8 +146%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 06 $22 +$1 +3%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $44 $0 +0%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders Mar 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Kings vs. Utah Mar 24 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 3h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 27h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 28h
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 28h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $13 45h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $13 47h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $18 3d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $18 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 8d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 48¢ $9 10d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi SELL No 99¢ $16 10d
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movi BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 13d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $12 13d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 15d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $17 17d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $17 17d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.96 · official $73.96 (match) · 286 history records