Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67d0…04f5 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate17%10W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$13
crypto 20% −$19
world 15% −$4
other 8% −$1
finance 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -14.3%
≤30d 16 -13.2% -21.5% 25% 19% -13.1%
≤90d 60 -4.1% -13.2% 17% 5% -10.8%
all 60 -4.1% -13.2% 17% 5% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 5% -10.8%
10% -21.5% 3% -19.3%
15% -29.1% 3% -27.1%
20% -36.1% 2% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses10 / 50
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage67d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $45 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$2 -4%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $42 +$19 +44%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 13 $74 +$49 +66%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $40 $0 -1%
Stars vs. Wild Jun 12 $22 −$1 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Jun 12 $20 +$2 +12%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $50 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 01 $10 $0 +0%
Spread: Rockets (-3.5) May 01 $25 $0 +0%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) May 01 $5 $0 +0%
Oilers vs. Ducks May 01 $19 $0 +0%
Spread: Nuggets (-6.5) May 01 $116 $0 +0%
Spread: Nuggets (-5.5) May 01 $41 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Knicks May 01 $29 $0 -0%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $15 $0 -2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 01 $38 $0 -1%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) May 01 $25 $0 -0%
Spread: Celtics (-5.5) May 01 $29 −$1 -2%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 30 $134 $0 -0%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $115 $0 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Apr 30 $10 $0 -4%
Spread: Lakers (-4.5) Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 30 $50 $0 -1%
Spread: Pistons (-10.5) Apr 30 $18 −$1 -8%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Apr 30 $20 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres Apr 30 $75 $0 +0%
Spread: Cavaliers (-9.5) Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Spread: Pistons (-9.5) Apr 30 $5 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Apr 29 $30 $0 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 29 $15 $0 +0%
Magic vs. Pistons Apr 29 $120 $0 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Apr 29 $10 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 29 $5 $0 -2%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $25 $0 +0%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 29 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Apr 29 $45 $0 +0%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $25 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 29 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $37 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $15 3h
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 69¢ $40 9d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 76¢ $2 9d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 73¢ $40 9d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 60¢ $40 9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 61¢ $29 9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 60¢ $2 9d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 60¢ $40 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up $2 11d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 55¢ $3 52d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, SELL Jack Della Maddalena 47¢ $2 52d
Celtics vs. 76ers SELL 76ers 69¢ $3 53d
Celtics vs. 76ers SELL Celtics 27¢ $1 53d
Stars vs. Wild SELL Stars 47¢ $2 53d
Stars vs. Wild SELL Wild 35¢ $2 53d
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 45¢ $2 53d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 924 history records