Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:37:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67d0…db7a world 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$12,199 (+12%) realized +$11,954 · open +$245
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%46W / 62L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$891per market
Trades / day64.6pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 53d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$6,048
other 9% +$334
sports 3% −$323
crypto 2% −$516
culture 0% −$180
politics 0% −$35
economics 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +109.7% +89.7% 67% 61% +16.9%
≤30d 62 +61.6% +46.2% 44% 34% -2.1%
≤90d 108 +27.2% +15.1% 43% 29% -4.5%
all 108 +27.2% +15.1% 43% 29% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.1% 29% -4.5%
10% +4.1% 15% -13.7%
15% ← realistic here -6.0% 13% -22.0%
20% -15.2% 8% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$906) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late +72% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$110 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$2,444
Realized+$11,954
Unrealized+$245
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses46 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions5
Markets (closed)108 / 113
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$891
Trades / day64.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 34¢ 41¢ $762 $918 +$157 (+21%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $747 $753 +$6 (+1%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $357 $412 +$55 (+15%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $264 $283 +$19 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $69 $78 +$9 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $534 +$224 +42%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 16 $4,668 +$507 +11%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $224 +$1,597 +714%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 15 $145 −$8 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $326 −$9 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $611 +$854 +140%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 14 $0 $0 -50%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $2,067 +$417 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6,043 +$994 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $373 +$374 +100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 13 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $135 −$16 -12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $3,216 −$33 -1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $210 +$10 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $267 +$146 +55%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $427 +$410 +96%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $121 +$55 +45%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $44 +$21 +47%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $552 −$78 -14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $819 +$2 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $989 +$81 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $188 −$96 -51%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,166 −$65 -6%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $41 +$13 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 06 $9 −$1 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $531 −$103 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 05 $1,445 −$156 -11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 5? Jun 05 $384 −$120 -31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 05 $16 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $88 −$67 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $93 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $406 −$1 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $906 −$189 -21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 10, 2026? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $1,049 −$613 -58%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $1,576 −$64 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 30 $660 −$232 -35%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 30 $207 +$576 +278%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $1,294 −$405 -31%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 28 $1,402 −$150 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $551 +$878 +159%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 27 $1,240 +$246 +20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? May 27 $463 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $4,287 −$448 -10%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $887 +$385 +43%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $247 +$120 +48%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 25 $36 −$1 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $1,856 −$981 -53%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $234 −$71 -30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $2,585 +$286 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $762 12m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $357 13m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $42 48m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $54 48m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 48m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $54 51m
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $247 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $87 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $365 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $11 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $282 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $80 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $219 6h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 7h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 10h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 10h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 10h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 10h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $400 10h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 10h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 10h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $164 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $2 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 10¢ $8 12h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 9¢ $571 12h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $37 15h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $5 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $338 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 6¢ $4 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 6¢ $3 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,443.74 · official $2,427.51 (match) · 3500 history records