Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:09:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67d5…98dc sports 647 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-6%) realized −$107 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate36%222W / 397L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day168.0pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$121
14 days−$129
30 days−$129
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$30
crypto 32% −$70
other 5% −$16
weather 5% −$14
world 2% −$3
politics 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 594 -8.8% -17.5% 36% 30% -15.0%
≤30d 619 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 30% -15.3%
≤90d 619 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 30% -15.3%
all 619 -9.7% -18.3% 36% 30% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.3% 30% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -26.1% 26% -23.4%
15% -33.3% 23% -30.8%
20% -39.8% 18% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$107
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses222 / 397
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions27
Markets (closed)619 / 647
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day168.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 27 History 619 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 95¢ 93¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? No 89¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 73¢ 80¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-4.5) Chicago White Sox 95¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Over 60¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-24%)
Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in June? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+13%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+228%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Under 36¢ 63¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+75%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 7¢ 19¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+173%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Under 49¢ 55¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Yes 56¢ 40¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-29%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 36¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+111%)
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? Yes 38¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 46¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 28¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Yes 14¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 18¢ 5¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Francesca Jones 13¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-19%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 34¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Solana reach $140 in June? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 220 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 15 $0 $0 -12%
Set 2 Winner: Gibson vs Jones Jun 15 $1 +$4 +238%
Set 2 Winner: Joint vs Starodubtseva Jun 15 $1 +$5 +456%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Clarke Jun 15 $5 $0 -1%
1st 5 Innings Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 8°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $3 −$2 -70%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan Jun 15 $4 −$2 -71%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $3 −$2 -57%
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet Jun 15 $4 −$2 -71%
Set Handicap: Boyer (-1.5) vs Clarke (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke Jun 15 $3 −$2 -57%
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Set Handicap: Svrcina (-1.5) vs Ajdukovic (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $3 −$2 -69%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$3 -69%
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -72%
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 15 $1 +$2 +219%
Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Svajda Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Masarova vs Pohankova Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Bartunkova vs Shnaider Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Paul vs Svajda Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Will XRP reach $1.60 in June? Jun 15 $6 $0 -3%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $1 −$1 -57%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $3 −$2 -67%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3 $0 -8%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$2 -69%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $2 −$2 -70%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $3 $0 -7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$4 +177%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 +$3 +226%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -50%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +164%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5m
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 14m
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 40m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 39¢ $1 2h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio SELL Raul Brancaccio 13¢ $1 2h
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 42¢ $0 2h
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Rebeka Masarova vs Mia Pohan SELL Mia Pohankova 17¢ $1 2h
Set 1 Winner: Boyer vs Clarke BUY Clarke 37¢ $2 2h
Map Handicap: EDG (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) SELL EDward Gaming 37¢ $1 2h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini SELL Alessandra Mazzola 16¢ $0 2h
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini SELL Alessandra Mazzola 16¢ $1 2h
Dublin: Gauthier Onclin vs Kyrian Jacquet SELL Gauthier Onclin 17¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Francesca Jones 6¢ $0 2h
Set Handicap: Boyer (-1.5) vs Clarke (+1.5) BUY Boyer 22¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A SELL EAC Rising 8¢ $0 2h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke SELL Tristan Boyer 17¢ $0 2h
Will XRP reach $1.40 in June? SELL No 74¢ $5 2h
Nottingham 2: Tristan Boyer vs Jay Clarke SELL Tristan Boyer 17¢ $1 2h
Set Handicap: Svrcina (-1.5) vs Ajdukovic (+1.5) BUY Ajdukovic 21¢ $1 2h
Set 2 Winner: Gibson vs Jones BUY Jones 29¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Zachary Svajda 15¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY EAC Rising 16¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL CYBERSHOKE Esports 18¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 7¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: EAC Rising vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY EAC Rising 16¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 7¢ $0 2h
Nottingham 2: Darwin Blanch vs Zhizhen Zhang SELL Darwin Blanch 41¢ $1 2h
Set Handicap: Shnaider (-1.5) vs Bartunkova (+1.5) SELL Shnaider 7¢ $0 2h
Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Svajda BUY Svajda 35¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.14 · official $58.61 (match) · 1601 history records