Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67da…f97b other 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$83 (-0%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 228L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$40
sports 22% −$24
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$6
world 5% −$4
crypto 5% −$6
tech 2% −$2
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 75 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage135d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $313 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $294 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $250 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $221 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $787 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $454 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $394 −$3 -1%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $357 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $609 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $381 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $326 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $243 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $570 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $336 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $57 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $669 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $161 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $512 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $206 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $289 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $379 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $241 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $60 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $517 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $205 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $462 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $134 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $164 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $488 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $202 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $423 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 11h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 13h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 15h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 17h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 21h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 23h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $55 27h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $55 28h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 30h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 32h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 33h
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 35h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 36h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 38h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $55 40h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $56 42h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 46h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $5 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 3d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.50 · official $54.50 (match) · 1415 history records