Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:39:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67db…5aa8 politics 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%7W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$2
sports 24% −$1
other 17% −$2
world 8% $0
culture 8% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
all 46 -8.8% -17.5% 15% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses7 / 39
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage226d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 22 $98 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 13 $1 $0 -33%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Feb 11 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 10 $1 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? Feb 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 05 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 26 $1 $0 -14%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $97 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? Jan 23 $96 $0 +0%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $97 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $101 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $102 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 06 $100 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 03 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $97 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 30 $1 $0 -11%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 30 $1 $0 -14%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 30 $179 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 28 $100 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 26 $98 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 24 $98 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 22 $1 $0 -50%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 20 $96 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 17 $1 $0 -14%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $1 $0 -22%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 14 $102 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 13 $1 −$1 -71%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 09 $101 $0 -0%
Will Sevilla win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 07 $1 $0 -25%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 06 $204 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Dec 02 $105 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $104 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $103 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 08 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $99 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $96 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $96 22d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $98 104d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $99 119d
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $99 127d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 127d
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $96 131d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 131d
US strikes Iran by February 7, 2026? BUY Yes $2 133d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 133d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $95 133d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $95 134d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 134d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 136d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes $1 136d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $96 136d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes $1 140d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 142d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 143d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 144d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $0 146d
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $95 147d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $97 147d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $97 148d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes $1 148d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes $1 149d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 22? BUY No 100¢ $96 149d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $97 152d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 153d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.17 · official $98.17 (match) · 165 history records