Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T02:43:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67df…8ec3 politics 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%4W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 58% −$1
other 29% $0
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 23 -0.0% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses4 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage142d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 30 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 29 $94 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $94 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $94 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $94 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $94 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $94 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 17 $94 $0 +0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $94 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $96 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $96 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $96 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $96 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $96 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Mar 23 $96 $0 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 09 $96 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $96 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $96 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 04 $95 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $96 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $96 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $94 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $94 12h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $94 17h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $94 29h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $94 5d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $94 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $94 13d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $94 14d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 32d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 32d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $94 34d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $94 34d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $94 42d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $94 42d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $94 43d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $94 44d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 47d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 48d
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 48d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $94 52d
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $94 53d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $95 73d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $96 74d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 77d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 78d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $96 80d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $96 80d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 85d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $96 85d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $96 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records