Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67df…7e00 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$1
politics 46% $0
other 3% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 33% -10.1%
≤30d 9 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 33% -10.1%
≤90d 9 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 33% -10.1%
all 9 -13.9% -22.1% 67% 33% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -10.1%
10% -29.5% 33% -18.7%
15% -36.3% 22% -26.5%
20% -42.6% 22% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $50 $51 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 77¢ 76¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$2 +32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.49 · official $56.49 (match) · 20 history records