Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:47:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67df…5f86 other 385 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$711 (+8%) realized +$712 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%184W / 196L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$64
14 days−$156
30 days−$305
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$357
sports 17% +$292
crypto 4% −$133
world 1% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -13.6% -21.8% 50% 50% +10.3%
≤30d 89 -11.2% -19.7% 49% 49% -22.0%
≤90d 377 -6.5% -15.4% 48% 48% -4.6%
all 380 -6.0% -14.9% 48% 48% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 48% -4.0%
10% -23.1% 44% -13.1%
15% -30.5% 41% -21.5%
20% -37.3% 34% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$712
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses184 / 196
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)380 / 385
History coverage90d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 380 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 60¢ 58¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $8 −$8 -99%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 +$8 +158%
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals Jun 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $61 +$25 +42%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $58 +$22 +38%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 −$4 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $22 +$16 +70%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $82 +$13 +16%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $20 +$23 +113%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $65 −$64 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $70 −$69 -99%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 21 $19 −$19 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $35 +$34 +99%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$11 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$14 +56%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $79 −$78 -98%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 20 $4 +$8 +197%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$15 +30%
Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $57 +$37 +64%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Ismaël Koné: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Cyle Larin: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 +$14 +136%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 19 $10 +$11 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $23 +$18 +76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 +$24 +59%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $9 +$21 +227%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 +$17 +40%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$22 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 60¢ $40 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 58¢ $8 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 20¢ $5 3h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $5 4h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $5 4h
Deniz Undav: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $5 4h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals AND Deniz Undav: 1+ goals AND Florian Wirtz: 1+ BUY $5 4h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 44¢ $5 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 74¢ $55 16h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 29h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $58 31h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $15 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $22 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $43 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $82 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $65 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 8d
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $5 8d
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $19 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $60 8d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $69 8d
Alex Baena: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $10 8d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $19 8d
Nico Williams: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 8d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $15 8d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 27¢ $8 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.76 · official $58.76 (match) · 964 history records