Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
67 0x67e1…4aea other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%17W / 0L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$548per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$7
sports 32% +$8
culture 11% +$1
tech 7% +$3
finance 7% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 17 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$628) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses17 / 0
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage102d
Avg bet$548
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $634 +$3 +0%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $633 +$1 +0%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $500 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $632 +$1 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $630 +$1 +0%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–$2.75 in May? Jun 11 $627 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $628 +$3 +0%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $600 +$1 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $3.00? May 09 $600 +$1 +0%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 28 $623 +$4 +1%
Will "Ronaldinho: The One and Only" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Apr 22 $340 $0 +0%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $621 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $619 +$1 +0%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 26 $619 +$1 +0%
Will "Jigsaw" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Mar 25 $281 $0 +0%
Will "27 Dresses" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Mar 25 $337 +$1 +0%
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? Mar 21 $390 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 100¢ $634 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 100¢ $633 23h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $500 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 100¢ $632 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $630 8d
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–$2.75 in May? BUY No 100¢ $627 17d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 100¢ $628 31d
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $600 44d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of May 4 above $3.00? BUY Yes 100¢ $600 50d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 99¢ $623 59d
Will "Ronaldinho: The One and Only" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee BUY No 100¢ $340 68d
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $621 79d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? BUY No 100¢ $619 91d
Lakers vs. Pacers BUY Lakers 100¢ $619 91d
Will "27 Dresses" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $337 95d
Will "Jigsaw" be the top US Netflix movie this week? BUY No 100¢ $281 95d
Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8m? BUY No 100¢ $390 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records