Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:16:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67e4…5aea sports 754 markets active 3h ago coverage 106d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 106d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$996 (-1%) realized −$996 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate76%573W / 181L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day25.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$215
7 days−$215
14 days−$242
30 days−$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$33
crypto 19% −$395
other 9% +$12
finance 2% +$1
tech 1% +$1
world 0% −$27
culture 0% $0
politics 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -12.2% -20.5% 80% 2% -12.5%
≤30d 167 -12.2% -20.5% 50% 5% -12.5%
≤90d 424 -8.7% -17.4% 67% 4% -11.0%
all 754 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 5% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 5% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 3% -18.6%
15% -29.4% 3% -26.5%
20% -36.3% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$996
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses573 / 181
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)754 / 754
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$117
Trades / day25.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 754 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea Jun 25 $203 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $106 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$1 +3%
Emma Navarro vs. Gabriela Ruse: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $138 $0 +0%
Navarro vs. Ruse: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $138 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Ruse (+1.5) Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Fabian Marozsan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $86 $0 +0%
Kecmanovic vs. Marozsan: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $155 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 25 $178 $0 +0%
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 25 $58 +$1 +1%
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich Jun 25 $223 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: McDonald (-1.5) vs Cretu (+1.5) Jun 25 $199 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +14%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $84 $0 +0%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $221 $0 +0%
Valorant: ROSE vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 25 $129 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $214 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 25 $214 $0 +0%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $214 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $214 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $176 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $176 $0 +0%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $185 $0 +0%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Mandatory (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A Jun 24 $220 $0 +0%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $176 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Diallo (-1.5) vs Etcheverry (+1.5) Jun 24 $45 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $85 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $220 $0 +0%
Caty McNally vs. Emiliana Arango: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $38 $0 +0%
Walton vs. Fokina: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 24 $176 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 24 $21 −$5 -24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 24 $20 −$3 -14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 13? Jun 24 $20 $0 +1%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 24 $220 $0 +0%
Plovdiv: Andres Santamarta vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 24 $114 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 4h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea BUY Subtop De France 100¢ $93 4h
Counter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro Lea BUY Subtop De France 100¢ $109 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 5h
Kecmanovic vs. Marozsan: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Under 100¢ $155 6h
Emma Navarro vs. Gabriela Ruse: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $61 6h
Navarro vs. Ruse: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $138 6h
Set Handicap: Navarro (-1.5) vs Ruse (+1.5) BUY Ruse 100¢ $6 6h
Emma Navarro vs. Gabriela Ruse: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $76 6h
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Fabian Marozsan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $46 6h
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Fabian Marozsan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 100¢ $40 6h
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 99¢ $37 6h
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Paulo Dos Santos 99¢ $21 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $51 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $33 6h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $23 6h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ex-MANA eSports 100¢ $175 8h
Targu Mures: Felix Balshaw vs Martin Krumich BUY Felix Balshaw 100¢ $223 8h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ex-MANA eSports 100¢ $2 8h
Counter-Strike: eSuba vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ex-MANA eSports 100¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 10h
Set Handicap: McDonald (-1.5) vs Cretu (+1.5) BUY Cretu 100¢ $199 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records