Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
67 0x67e4…4933 crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate94%16W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.3% -5.7% 94% 59% -8.2%
≤30d 17 +4.3% -5.7% 94% 59% -8.2%
≤90d 17 +4.3% -5.7% 94% 59% -8.2%
all 17 +4.3% -5.7% 94% 59% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 59% -8.2%
10% -14.7% 0% -17.0%
15% -22.9% 0% -25.0%
20% -30.5% 0% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$42 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses16 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage2d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $39 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $37 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $36 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $35 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $40 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $39 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records