Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:04:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67e5…c08f weather 147 markets active 5d ago coverage 7d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$227 (-14%) realized −$227 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%66W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day60.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$258
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 40% -15.9%
≤30d 147 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 35% -24.9%
≤90d 147 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 35% -24.9%
all 147 -14.8% -22.9% 45% 35% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.9% 35% -24.9%
10% ← realistic here -30.3% 24% -32.1%
15% -37.1% 22% -38.6%
20% -43.2% 16% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$227
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses66 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day60.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (47 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +39%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$2 -26%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$5 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$5 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 +$6 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$10 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$5 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$8 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$8 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $33 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $22 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $18 +$16 +87%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$2 -13%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$7 +169%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 −$13 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 65¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? SELL No 57¢ $7 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 60¢ $6 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 62¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 67¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 58¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 78¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? SELL No 83¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 12? SELL No 85¢ $8 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 76¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $7 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 58¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $6 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 44¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 57¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 468 history records