Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:03:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

67
0x67e9…7827
weather · 1859 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$485 +14%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$482 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$376
Realized+$482
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses560 / 1035
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions201
Markets (closed)1595 / 1859
History coverage45d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day67.6
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 201 History 1595 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$150
7 days+$35
14 days+$201
30 days+$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 90¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 88¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will France be the highest-scoring team in Group I during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 68¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Yes 32¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+212%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 34¢ 80¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+135%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 24¢ 58¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+142%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 60¢ 89¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+48%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on June 12? Yes 37¢ 95¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+154%)
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? Google 71¢ 70¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$2 (+112%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 13? Yes 39¢ 60¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31? Anthropic 71¢ 62¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Türkiye be the highest-scoring team in Group D during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 62¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Yes 25¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 42¢ 96¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+127%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will England reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 61¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+73%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 74¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Yes 38¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C or higher on February 23? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on April 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 5? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on April 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 18? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on March 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on March 24? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 19? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 25? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on March 28? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -112%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on February 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 50-51°F on March 16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on March 30? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 21? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 23? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 22? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C or below on April 28 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on April 22? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -193%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 7°C on April 9? Jun 12 $0 $0 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 22? Jun 12 $1 −$2 -212%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on April 12 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ap Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 22 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 17 Jun 12 $1 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 8°C on April 10? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on April 19? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 World Cup: Netherlands vs USA (Game 1) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on March 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 11 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on April 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on February 22? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 28 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 91% +$701
other 7% +$10
sports 2% +$4
world 0% −$2
tech 0% −$2
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% +$12
culture 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea be the furthest advancing AFC nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 42¢ $1 3m
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 7m
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? BUY Yes 75¢ $2 8m
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 11m
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 12m
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 14m
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 15m
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 22m
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 24m
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $2 26m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 76¢ $2 28m
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 56¢ $1 40m
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 77¢ $2 48m
Will USA finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 1h
Will USA finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Sta BUY Yes 26¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador finish second in Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Tunisia finish last in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G SELL Yes 28¢ $0 1h
Will Netherlands finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will Japan finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 38¢ $2 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G BUY No 90¢ $10 1h
Will Egypt finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group S BUY Yes 49¢ $1 1h
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $2 1h
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY Yes 58¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 359 -3.4% -12.6% 29% 28% -3.1%
≤30d 1073 +16.8% +5.7% 35% 33% +6.6%
≤90d 1595 +17.6% +6.4% 35% 34% +5.6%
all 1595 +17.6% +6.4% 35% 34% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover67.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.4% 34% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here -3.8% 33% -4.5%
15% -13.1% 31% -13.7%
20% -21.6% 30% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.73 · official $378.74 (match) · 3500 history records