Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:50:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
67 0x67ea…87cc crypto 893 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 168d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$351 (+0%) realized +$353 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate88%780W / 107L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day13.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$515now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$276
14 days+$271
30 days+$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$197
other 6% +$303
sports 5% +$340
finance 4% +$125
world 3% −$386
economics 2% +$8
politics 1% +$55
tech 1% +$62
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +4.2% -5.7% 79% 26% -5.7%
≤30d 23 +1.8% -7.9% 78% 26% -6.4%
≤90d 34 -10.8% -19.3% 68% 24% -9.8%
all 887 -0.0% -9.5% 88% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 2% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 2% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$32 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$515
Realized+$353
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses780 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)887 / 893
History coverage169d ⚠
Avg bet$84
Trades / day13.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 887 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 94¢ $142 $142 −$1 (-0%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 92¢ 90¢ $92 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $86 $86 +$0 (+1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $400 +$2 +0%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N Jun 18 $100 −$11 -11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $380 +$32 +8%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $484 +$16 +3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $401 +$29 +7%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $900 +$3 +0%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 −$6 -3%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $402 +$58 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$70 -35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $441 +$17 +4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? Jun 15 $396 +$8 +2%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? Jun 15 $36 −$13 -35%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $440 +$8 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $440 +$4 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,066 +$171 +16%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $164 +$42 +26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $491 +$20 +4%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 07 $602 +$4 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $104 −$70 -68%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $586 +$129 +22%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $497 +$89 +18%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $394 −$378 -96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $360 −$219 -61%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Apr 01 $930 +$89 +10%
Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68 Mar 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Mar 31 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 31 $0 $0 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $523 +$48 +9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 25 $302 −$34 -11%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Mar 24 $72 +$1 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Mar 20 $112 −$2 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $412 +$2 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 16 $535 +$32 +6%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 08 $415 +$8 +2%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 06 $450 −$35 -8%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $414 +$186 +45%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 19 $666 +$134 +20%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Feb 10 $312 −$13 -4%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $489 +$108 +22%
Nasdaq 100 (NDX) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $20 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 3? Feb 06 $50 +$10 +19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 2? Feb 03 $516 +$29 +6%
Will Wildflower (Billie Eilish) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annua Feb 02 $5 +$25 +471%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Jan 31 $511 +$19 +4%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Jan 30 $474 +$37 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 19 $6 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $21 33m
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $47 38m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $143 41m
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $66 42m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $100 1h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 96¢ $100 6h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $50 27h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $400 28h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N SELL Shopify Rebellion Black 83¢ $83 33h
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N BUY Shopify Rebellion Black 94¢ $100 33h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 97¢ $484 38h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 92¢ $380 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 56¢ $26 2d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 43¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $401 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $900 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 88¢ $195 3d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 90¢ $201 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $402 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 57¢ $131 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 86¢ $201 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? SELL Yes 44¢ $24 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $755 on June 15? BUY Yes 65¢ $36 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $392 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 100¢ $449 4d
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 95¢ $133 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $515.07 · official $515.07 (match) · 3435 history records