Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67eb…e26e politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%4W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$4
other 23% −$1
world 5% $0
culture 4% +$1
tech 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.1% -9.6% 16% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses4 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage16d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $226 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $230 $0 -0%
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this Jun 19 $103 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $227 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $230 $0 -0%
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 Jun 15 $100 $0 +0%
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 14 $226 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $230 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $231 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $88 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $232 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $232 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $110 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $230 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $94 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $233 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $229 $0 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $233 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $212 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $230 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $226 50m
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $226 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $230 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $230 1h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this wee BUY Yes 100¢ $100 47h
Will "Stupid Song - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on US Spotify this BUY Yes 100¢ $103 47h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $227 2d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $227 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $230 2d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $230 2d
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
Will Google be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $102 7d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $226 7d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $226 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $230 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $230 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $205 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $205 7d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $225 9d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $225 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $231 9d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $231 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $88 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 12d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $232 12d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $232 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $232 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $232 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $110 12d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $110 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records