Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67ee…3b01 sports 241 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,398 (+11%) realized +$2,379 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate23%56W / 184L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown76%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$203est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$998now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$472
14 days+$1,926
30 days+$2,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,713
other 10% +$567
crypto 4% −$22
world 2% −$42
politics 0% −$16
tech 0% −$6
culture 0% −$7
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -12.0% -20.4% 57% 22% +4.7%
≤30d 48 +3.2% -6.7% 60% 44% +17.7%
≤90d 240 -21.9% -29.3% 23% 16% -0.1%
all 240 -21.9% -29.3% 23% 16% -0.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 16% -0.1%
10% -36.1% 12% -9.7%
15% -42.3% 11% -18.4%
20% -47.9% 8% -26.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$24 · ×4.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$998
Realized+$2,379
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses56 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$203
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage89d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown76%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 78¢ 80¢ $979 $998 +$19 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia to win the second half? Jun 24 $58 +$8 +14%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $224 −$199 -89%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $61 −$61 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $89 −$80 -90%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $89 $0 +0%
England vs. Ghana: Second half draw? Jun 23 $10 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? Jun 23 $24 +$2 +9%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 23 $33 −$21 -64%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,000 +$471 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $1 $0 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $600 +$352 +59%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 20? Jun 20 $4 $0 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 18 $3 +$1 +42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 22? Jun 18 $3 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Jun 18 $444 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $684 +$845 +124%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $118 −$118 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $58 −$58 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $68 +$150 +222%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $29 −$29 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $290 +$313 +108%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $48 +$35 +71%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Juan Estevez Jun 11 $59 +$35 +59%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $166 +$189 +114%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 11 $295 +$216 +73%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 10 $97 +$113 +116%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $200 +$228 +114%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $493 −$493 -100%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 07 $69 −$69 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Maddison Inglis vs Alycia Parks Jun 07 $49 −$49 -100%
Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Molcan Jun 07 $59 +$35 +60%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 06 $59 +$38 +65%
Will Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe end in a draw? Jun 06 $49 +$24 +48%
Will Azerbaijan vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 05 $49 +$23 +46%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $693 +$224 +32%
Will Northern Ireland vs. Guinea end in a draw? Jun 04 $247 +$103 +42%
Will Croatia vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 02 $132 +$47 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 22 $410 −$29 -7%
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien May 21 $32 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $990 1h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 38¢ $6 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 64¢ $5 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 38¢ $1 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 39¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 38¢ $6 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 38¢ $8 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 38¢ $2 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? SELL No 42¢ $0 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 74¢ $5 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $89 15h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY No 89¢ $224 15h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 94¢ $61 15h
Colombia to win the second half? BUY Yes 87¢ $58 15h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY No 99¢ $89 18h
England vs. Ghana: Second half draw? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 21h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 97¢ $2 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Second half draw? BUY No 91¢ $24 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 27h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? SELL No 0¢ $0 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? SELL No 98¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? SELL No 99¢ $1 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $997.59 · official $997.59 (match) · 1284 history records