Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:17:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67ee…78bd world 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate27%28W / 75L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$30
14 days−$42
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$8
politics 23% +$6
other 17% +$3
sports 9% −$3
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$9
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -2.1% -11.4% 38% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 31 -0.2% -9.7% 26% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 79 +0.4% -9.2% 27% 4% -9.5%
all 103 +0.1% -9.5% 27% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses28 / 75
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)103 / 106
History coverage258d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 85¢ 86¢ $145 $146 +$1 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 92¢ 90¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $334 −$6 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $169 −$2 -1%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $131 +$3 +2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $144 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $72 +$3 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $194 −$4 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $133 −$24 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $89 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $149 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $389 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $277 −$1 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $325 −$8 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $105 −$2 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $175 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $172 −$3 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $189 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $153 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $477 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $262 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $330 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $46 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $182 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $20 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $218 +$23 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $179 −$4 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $153 +$5 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $171 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $171 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $156 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $166 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 22 $157 −$4 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 20 $145 +$11 +8%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $7 $0 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 18 $160 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $8 +$10 +121%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $230 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $461 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 14 $137 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $425 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $138 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $5 $0 -6%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 24 $117 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $151 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $413 +$5 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $4 −$4 -85%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $139 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $13 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $133 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $51 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $82 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $132 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $147 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $147 23h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $134 31h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $112 33h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $19 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $136 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $144 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $74 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $67 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $26 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $102 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $47 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $85 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $49 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $36 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $24 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 22¢ $133 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $89 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $89 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $21 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $16 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.15 · official $146.21 · 488 history records