Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:33:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x67f5…31e8 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$14
politics 34% −$11
sports 6% +$35
economics 5% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 116 +0.4% -9.2% 6% 3% -9.5%
all 134 +0.6% -8.9% 10% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.7% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 4% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage119d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $360 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $233 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $83 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $197 $0 -0%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 21 $32 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $379 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $223 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $18 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $33 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $194 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $171 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $209 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 19 $168 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $176 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $202 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 16 $212 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $180 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $189 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $324 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $224 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $178 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May? May 11 $220 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $385 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $194 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 09 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $156 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in April? May 06 $30 $0 +0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $343 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $592 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $144 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $201 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $195 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $232 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $205 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $428 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $177 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $204 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $170 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $206 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $330 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 6h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $23 6h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $23 9h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 25h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 25h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 45h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $28 45h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 2d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $35 2d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $28 9d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $28 9d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $30 12d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $30 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 16d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 17d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 23d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 24d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 24d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 24d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $194 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.99 · official $30.99 (match) · 388 history records