Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
67 0x67f7…2f63 politics 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$81 (-0%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 103L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$228per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$13
other 42% −$11
sports 6% −$57
crypto 4% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 98 -4.6% -13.7% 5% 1% -9.9%
all 113 -3.2% -12.4% 9% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -9.8%
10% -20.8% 5% -18.4%
15% -28.4% 4% -26.3%
20% -35.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$2 · ×4.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)113 / 116
History coverage118d
Avg bet$228
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $19 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $636 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $401 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $211 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $188 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $205 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $186 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 05 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $189 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $181 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $159 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $202 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $343 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $151 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $421 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $203 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $218 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? Apr 26 $232 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $450 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $209 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $182 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in April? Apr 22 $220 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $171 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $168 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $359 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $402 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $191 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $181 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,092 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $650 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $181 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $236 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $172 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 16 $409 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $234 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $236 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $403 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $167 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $169 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $182 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $215 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $39 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $19 2h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $19 9d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $164 26d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $164 30d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $176 34d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $176 38d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $211 39d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $211 45d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $188 47d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $188 47d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $205 48d
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $205 48d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $186 48d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $186 49d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $165 49d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $165 49d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 50d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 50d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $181 50d
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $181 50d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $159 50d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $159 51d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 51d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $202 51d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 51d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 52d
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $151 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.90 · official $95.90 (match) · 332 history records