Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

67 0x67f9…cb5f other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$76 (+18%) realized +$89 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR58%break-even

Win rate58%7W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$23per market

Trades / day6.9pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit32%portable

Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +58%

net ROI/market (all)+3.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	12	+13.9%	+3.1%	58%	58%	+3.6%
≤30d	12	+13.9%	+3.1%	58%	58%	+3.6%
≤90d	12	+13.9%	+3.1%	58%	58%	+3.6%
all	12	+13.9%	+3.1%	58%	58%	+3.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.1%	58%	+3.6%
10%	-6.8%	58%	-6.3%
15%	-15.8%	58%	-15.3%
20%	-24.0%	42%	-23.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 34% · top 2 65% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +43% → late -15% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$20 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.4 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$134

Realized+$89

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)58%

Wins / losses7 / 5

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions7

Markets (closed)12 / 19

History coverage5d

Avg bet$23

Trades / day6.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 12 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$56	$50	−$6 (-11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$20	$19	−$1 (-5%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	57¢	62¢	$15	$16	+$1 (+10%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	54¢	54¢	$15	$15	−$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?	Yes	57¢	72¢	$10	$13	+$3 (+25%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	13¢	14¢	$11	$11	+$0 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	0¢	$21	$10	−$10 (-50%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$53	+$49	+93%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$40	−$40	-99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Jun 15	$31	−$31	-99%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	Jun 15	$11	−$11	-100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$10	+$7	+68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$20	+$10	+50%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$20	+$11	+55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$10	+$11	+109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$15	−$15	-99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$20	−$4	-22%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$25	+$44	+172%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$25	+$10	+41%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$102	1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	80¢	$20	3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$5	3h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Ilia Topuria	80¢	$20	3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$5	5h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	SELL Diego Lopes	99¢	$17	5h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	BUY Alex Pereira	51¢	$21	7h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	58¢	$10	7h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	66¢	$20	13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$15	36h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	36h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	64¢	$20	37h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	14¢	$1	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	38¢	$16	2d
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	47¢	$20	2d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	3d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St	BUY Yes	57¢	$5	3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$69	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$5	3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1	3d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	17¢	$20	3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$6	3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$36	3d
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	5d
Will South Africa finish last in Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gr	BUY Yes	57¢	$10	5d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	13¢	$10	5d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	57¢	$15	5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	50¢	$1	5d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix?	BUY Yes	50¢	$10	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$25	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.35 · official $134.35 (match) · 44 history records