Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67f9…a7b5 world 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate32%25W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$10
politics 27% −$5
other 20% +$2
sports 9% −$10
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -1.7% -11.0% 14% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 26 -2.4% -11.7% 23% 0% -10.6%
≤90d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 31% 3% -10.0%
all 78 -2.1% -11.4% 32% 5% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 5% -10.2%
10% -19.9% 5% -18.8%
15% -27.7% 4% -26.7%
20% -34.7% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses25 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage540d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 90¢ 92¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $45 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 21 $71 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -8%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $33 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $26 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 09 $76 −$2 -2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $34 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $164 −$4 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $61 +$1 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 31 $2 $0 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $46 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $16 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $46 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $4 −$1 -24%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $42 −$4 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $56 +$1 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 21 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? May 18 $4 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $61 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $52 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $39 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $102 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $114 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 20 $12 $0 -3%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 19 $87 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $40 $0 -1%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $40 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $43 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $33 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $30 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $34 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $11 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 78¢ $31 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $19 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $34 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $33 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $16 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $17 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $28 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $33 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 78¢ $33 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $36 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.85 · official $33.85 (match) · 349 history records