Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
67 0x67f9…d241 other 92 markets active 51d ago coverage 150d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 150d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$122,962 (-63%) realized −$122,962 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%22W / 111L
Whale WR18%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,112per market
Trades / day23.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$718now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44,499
7 days−$44,499
14 days−$44,499
30 days−$44,499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$37,469
other 18% −$25,689
world 18% −$10,956
politics 8% −$11,082
tech 2% −$8,771
crypto 1% −$1,600
culture 0% +$543
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-57.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 41 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 71 -74.9% -77.3% 14% 7% -75.5%
all 133 -53.0% -57.5% 17% 13% -59.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -57.5% 13% -59.9%
10% -61.6% 12% -63.8%
15% ← realistic here -65.3% 12% -67.3%
20% -68.7% 11% -70.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 18% (≥$2,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -23% → late -83% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
37.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,785 vs −$1,809 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$718
Realized−$122,962
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses22 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)18%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 92
History coverage150d ⚠
Avg bet$2,112
Trades / day23.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (105 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Jun 15 $4,001 −$4,001 -100%
Will Texas Tech win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 11, 1AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $1,897 −$1,897 -100%
Will Solana reach $240 September 8–14? Jun 15 $1,699 −$1,761 -104%
Will USC win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during the America Business Forum on No Jun 15 $1,156 −$1,156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $700 −$700 -100%
Seahawks vs. Commanders Jun 15 $244 −$244 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the America Bu Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 10? Jun 15 $5,811 −$5,811 -100%
Solana Up or Down - August 10, 8PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Solana reach $210 in August? Jun 15 $851 −$851 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Lions vs. Eagles Jun 15 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $647 −$647 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on November 8? Jun 15 $710 −$710 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 22, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $700 −$700 -100%
BYU vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Jun 15 $2,977 −$2,977 -100%
Will Arizona State win the 2026 College Football National Championship Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will SMU win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Kansas State vs. Utah Jun 15 $1,731 −$1,731 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 11? Jun 15 $415 −$415 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on May 9? Jun 15 $48 −$6,499 -13448%
Will NVIDIA say "Gaming" during earnings call? Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
TCU vs. North Carolina Jun 15 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Iowa win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 23, 1AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 10+ times during the America Business Forum on No Jun 15 $233 −$233 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Jun 15 $2,363 −$2,363 -100%
Will Kansas State win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will TCU win the 2026 College Football National Championship? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Arch Manning win the Heisman Trophy? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down on November 5? Jun 15 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
ChatGPT #1 app May 9? Jun 15 $327 −$327 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $1,600 −$1,600 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May? Jun 15 $2,555 −$2,555 -100%
Arizona State vs. Colorado Jun 15 $1,350 −$1,350 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 25 $1,807 −$1,807 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 25 $4,011 −$4,011 -100%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26? Apr 25 $531 −$531 -100%
Will Max Iheanachor be drafted in the 1st round of the 2026 Pro Footba Apr 24 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Go ahead" 3+ times during healthcare event? Apr 23 $1,062 −$1,025 -96%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Apr 23 $176 −$176 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $2,135 +$1,365 +64%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $2,016 +$2,310 +115%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? Apr 21 $1,785 −$1,226 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $177 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $88 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $64 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $172 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $36 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $180 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $107 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $138 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $19 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $25 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $40 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $35 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $8 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $7 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $4 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $0 50d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $37 50d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $718.07 · official $718.07 (match) · 3500 history records