Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6800…587b crypto 1453 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,868 (-6%) realized −$4,868 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate59%858W / 595L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day37.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$144
14 days+$321
30 days+$611
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,825
other 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +2.9% -6.9% 64% 53% -4.9%
≤30d 196 -0.8% -10.2% 57% 53% -4.2%
≤90d 1453 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 49% -13.6%
all 1453 -4.5% -13.6% 59% 49% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 49% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 36% -21.8%
15% -29.4% 24% -29.4%
20% -36.4% 14% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$38 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,868
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses858 / 595
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1453 / 1453
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$59
Trades / day37.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1453 Trades
no open positions (18 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$36 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$26 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $103 −$36 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $203 +$19 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET Jun 20 $104 +$37 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $102 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$44 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $358 +$100 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $52 +$34 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$60 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $103 −$8 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $102 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$47 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$14 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $51 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$8 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$6 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$14 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $102 +$27 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $103 +$66 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $122 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $22 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $63 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $26 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $20 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $64 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $51 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $141 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $47 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $104 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $36 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records