Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:49:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
68 0x6804…29e2 sports 1044 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$16,338 (+10%) realized −$3,289 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate60%619W / 419L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day128.5pace
Fees−$1,838est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,440
7 days−$4,605
14 days−$2,369
30 days−$3,289
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$3,326
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (129 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 319 -1.5% -10.9% 57% 48% -18.3%
≤30d 1038 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 48% -11.4%
≤90d 1038 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 48% -11.4%
all 1038 -1.4% -10.8% 60% 48% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 48% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.4% 40% -19.8%
15% -27.1% 33% -27.6%
20% -34.3% 24% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$133 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$3,289
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses619 / 419
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$1,838
Open positions5
Markets (closed)1038 / 1044
History coverage19d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day128.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 1038 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 11¢ 6¢ $46 $27 −$19 (-41%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 Under 32¢ 64¢ $9 $18 +$9 (+103%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Over 66¢ 26¢ $35 $14 −$21 (-60%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 29¢ 16¢ $13 $8 −$6 (-42%)
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) Texas Rangers 60¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $28 +$26 +92%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $13 +$9 +67%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 14 $21 +$9 +44%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 14 $84 +$20 +24%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $13 +$7 +56%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $12 −$7 -63%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $14 +$9 +68%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +16%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $4 +$1 +16%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +23%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 +$3 +206%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +129%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $7 +$15 +216%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +146%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $24 +$1 +3%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $22 +$4 +16%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $1 +$3 +250%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 10.5 Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$1 +6%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $24 +$7 +27%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $3 +$6 +180%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $8 +$25 +307%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $34 +$9 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $43 +$6 +13%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $6 +$3 +50%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$3 +13%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $19 +$7 +38%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $3 +$4 +158%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $76 +$47 +62%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 30¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 32¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 11¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 12¢ $5 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 11¢ $1 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 65¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 65¢ $6 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 65¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5) BUY Texas Rangers 60¢ $1 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 26¢ $9 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 11¢ $39 1h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 35¢ $5 1h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 33¢ $2 3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 51¢ $1 3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ $3 3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $4 3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 49¢ $19 3h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.33 · official $67.33 (match) · 3500 history records