Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:17:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6807…370b crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+3%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day21.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$118
sports 21% $0
other 11% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -59.2% -63.1% 30% 20% -24.2%
≤30d 10 -59.2% -63.1% 30% 20% -24.2%
≤90d 10 -59.2% -63.1% 30% 20% -24.2%
all 10 -59.2% -63.1% 30% 20% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -63.1% 20% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -66.6% 20% -31.4%
15% -69.9% 20% -38.0%
20% -72.8% 10% -44.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -59% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$30 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day21.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $233 −$35 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $162 +$95 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $187 −$20 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$48 -95%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $51 +$1 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $64 +$30 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 32¢ $185 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $185 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $207 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $258 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $162 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $21 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $246 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $166 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $51 1h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 44¢ $51 1h
England to score first vs. Croatia? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17 BUY 59¢ $44 12h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $51 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $64 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $223.99 · 22 history records