Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6807…4107 crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 217d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$122 (-34%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +29% what you keep after slip
Net edge+29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$56
crypto 26% −$25
world 13% −$46
other 12% +$47
sports 4% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+28.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +164.9% +139.6% 43% 43% +101.2%
≤30d 14 +164.9% +139.6% 43% 43% +101.2%
≤90d 30 +57.9% +42.8% 43% 43% +11.6%
all 34 +42.5% +28.9% 41% 38% -29.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.9% 38% -29.0%
10% +16.6% 38% -35.8%
15% +5.3% 32% -42.0%
20% -5.0% 26% -47.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +118% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

217d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage217d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $21 +$48 +230%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2 +$2 +117%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$5 +484%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -79%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $3 −$1 -17%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -56%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $3 +$5 +162%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 18 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 18 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 18 $5 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 17 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Player 167 win Beast Games: Season 2? Jan 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? Jan 17 $47 −$46 -97%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Dec 14 $61 −$59 -96%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $97 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $11 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 96¢ $6 9h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 8¢ $0 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $9 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $2 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 57¢ $2 10h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 11h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $1 11h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 25¢ $1 34h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 35h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 35h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 99¢ $7 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 3d
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $8 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 37¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records