Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:30:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x6807…391e sports 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 682d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$478 (+2%) realized −$1,177 · open +$1,655
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%52W / 54L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$4,775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$263
14 days+$263
30 days+$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$101
other 43% +$691
politics 1% −$76
crypto 1% −$6
world 0% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -24.3% -31.5% 40% 40% +37.5%
≤30d 5 -24.3% -31.5% 40% 40% +37.5%
≤90d 5 -24.3% -31.5% 40% 40% +37.5%
all 106 -13.1% -21.4% 49% 41% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 41% -15.0%
10% -28.9% 32% -23.1%
15% -35.8% 25% -30.5%
20% -42.1% 17% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$74 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

682d coverage
Net worth$4,775
Realized−$1,177
Unrealized+$1,655
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses52 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)106 / 112
History coverage682d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,875 $3,516 +$1,641 (+87%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $300 $416 +$116 (+39%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $326 +$26 (+9%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $237 −$62 (-21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $236 −$64 (-21%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? No 43¢ 42¢ $45 $44 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $202 +$101 +50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $203 +$262 +129%
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers Jan 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Bucks vs. Nets Jan 21 $133 −$133 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2024-10-27? Oct 27 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-10-27? Oct 27 $11 +$9 +79%
Rockets vs. Spurs Oct 27 $108 −$108 -100%
Magic vs. Grizzlies Oct 27 $107 −$107 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Oct 27 $130 +$71 +55%
Will Man City win on 2024-10-26? Oct 26 $135 +$15 +11%
Will Man City vs. Southampton end in a draw? Oct 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-26? Oct 26 $16 +$4 +28%
76ers vs. Raptors Oct 26 $207 −$97 -47%
Suns vs. Lakers Oct 26 $84 +$66 +79%
Pacers vs. Knicks Oct 26 $132 +$68 +52%
Spurs vs. Mavericks Oct 25 $114 +$36 +32%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Oct 25 $114 −$114 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Kings Oct 25 $52 +$48 +92%
Vikings vs. Rams Oct 25 $60 −$60 -100%
Celtics vs. Wizards Oct 25 $89 +$11 +12%
Bulls vs. Pelicans Oct 24 $106 +$44 +41%
Pacers vs. Pistons Oct 24 $65 +$35 +54%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Oct 23 $49 +$51 +104%
Knicks vs. Celtics Oct 23 $136 +$63 +46%
Ravens vs. Buccaneers Oct 22 $98 +$52 +54%
Jets vs. Steelers Oct 22 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Man City win on 2024-10-20? Oct 20 $116 +$34 +30%
Will Manchester City beat Fulham? Oct 05 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Chelsea beat Crystal Palace? Sep 02 $646 −$646 -100%
Will Manchester United beat Liverpool? Sep 02 $76 +$24 +32%
Will Aston Villa beat Leicester City? Sep 01 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Arsenal beat Brighton? Sep 01 $449 −$323 -72%
Will Arsenal vs. Brighton end in a draw? Sep 01 $300 +$147 +49%
Who will eat more Hot Dogs in 10 minutes? Aug 31 $198 $0 +0%
US Open: Shelton vs. Tiafoe Aug 31 $951 −$55 -6%
Will Donald Trump say "tampon" during Michigan town hall? Aug 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Pavel" or "Durov" during Michigan town hall? Aug 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "fake news" during Michigan town hall? Aug 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "marxist" during Michigan town hall? Aug 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Donald Trump say "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during Michigan Aug 30 $26 +$74 +285%
Will Donald Trump say "border" 25 or more times during Michigan town h Aug 30 $84 +$16 +19%
Commanders vs. Patriots Aug 26 $568 −$28 -5%
Will Wolverhampton beat Chelsea? Aug 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Chelsea beat Wolverhampton? Aug 25 $92 +$78 +85%
Seahawks vs. Browns Aug 25 $503 +$137 +27%
Jets vs. Giants Aug 25 $777 +$37 +5%
Will Arsenal beat Aston Villa? Aug 24 $92 −$92 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $46 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $39 16h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $43 16h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $20 30h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 34h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $308 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $308 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 43¢ $203 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,176 5d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $755 5d
Bucks vs. Nets BUY Bucks 70¢ $56 597d
Bucks vs. Nets BUY Bucks 77¢ $77 597d
Pelicans vs. Trail Blazers BUY Pelicans 70¢ $105 598d
Will West Ham win on 2024-10-27? BUY No 69¢ $34 598d
Will West Ham win on 2024-10-27? BUY No 69¢ $69 598d
Rockets vs. Spurs BUY Rockets 54¢ $108 598d
Will Chelsea win on 2024-10-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $11 599d
Will Bournemouth win on 2024-10-26? BUY No 78¢ $16 599d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Magic 53¢ $106 599d
Will Man City vs. Southampton end in a draw? BUY Yes $2 599d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 66¢ $66 599d
Magic vs. Grizzlies BUY Magic 51¢ $1 599d
Will Man City win on 2024-10-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 599d
Will Man City win on 2024-10-26? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 599d
Will Man City vs. Southampton end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 599d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 63¢ $9 599d
Heat vs. Hornets BUY Heat 63¢ $55 599d
76ers vs. Raptors SELL 76ers $0 599d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,775.05 · official $4,775.05 (match) · 395 history records