Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:10:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
68 0x6809…b188 sports 306 markets active 2h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,601 (+4%) realized +$1,729 · open −$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%212W / 92L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$272now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$109
14 days+$18
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$1,721
other 1% −$174
economics 0% −$3
culture 0% −$70
crypto 0% −$8
politics 0% −$5
finance 0% +$5
world 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -21.9% -29.3% 40% 40% -29.1%
≤30d 22 -2.4% -11.7% 73% 55% -11.6%
≤90d 57 +3.7% -6.2% 75% 63% -5.7%
all 304 +5.3% -4.7% 70% 60% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 60% -5.6%
10% -13.9% 44% -14.6%
15% -22.2% 33% -22.9%
20% -29.8% 21% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$100 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$272
Realized+$1,729
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses212 / 92
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions2
Markets (closed)304 / 306
History coverage280d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 73¢ 66¢ $300 $267 −$33 (-11%)
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta Geoffrey Blancaneaux 65¢ 3¢ $100 $4 −$96 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $101 −$100 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $101 +$58 +57%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $101 −$2 -2%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $101 +$36 +36%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $100 +$12 +12%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $100 +$13 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $101 +$44 +44%
Ilkley: Elvina Kalieva vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 09 $101 +$31 +31%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman Jun 07 $100 +$11 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 07 $101 −$28 -28%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $101 +$29 +29%
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis Jun 03 $101 +$55 +55%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $100 +$16 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $100 +$8 +8%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $100 −$100 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 29 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti May 27 $101 +$26 +26%
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 26 $100 +$4 +4%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel May 25 $100 +$10 +10%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 22 $101 −$100 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Andrea Pellegrin May 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever May 21 $100 +$13 +13%
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen May 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $100 +$8 +8%
Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 16 $101 +$71 +70%
Paris: Emma Navarro vs Katie Volynets May 14 $201 +$43 +21%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 14 $101 +$50 +50%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 12 $101 +$36 +36%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Hugo Dellien vs Jesper de May 05 $101 +$77 +76%
PBC Fight Night: David Benavidez vs. Gilberto ‘Zurdo’ Ramirez May 05 $100 +$19 +18%
Aix en Provence: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Alejandro Tabilo May 02 $101 +$24 +24%
Madrid Open: Adolfo Vallejo vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 30 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Arsenal finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standings? Apr 27 $10 $0 +3%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Hurricanes vs. Senators Apr 27 $100 +$17 +17%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Alpha Apr 27 $100 +$44 +44%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 22 $100 −$99 -99%
Rome: Alex Barrena vs Gianluca Cadenasso Apr 21 $100 +$57 +57%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 19 $100 −$99 -99%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Vit Kopriva Apr 19 $100 +$42 +42%
Wuning 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Leo Vithoontien Apr 17 $100 +$14 +14%
BMW Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Joao Fonseca Apr 16 $100 +$34 +34%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Apr 15 $100 +$16 +16%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Jannik Sinner Apr 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Jakub Mensik vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 08 $100 −$19 -19%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini Apr 08 $100 −$99 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Plovdiv: Geoffrey Blancaneaux vs Tomasz Berkieta BUY Geoffrey Blancaneaux 65¢ $101 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $101 25h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $101 2d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $101 3d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 80¢ $98 5d
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 81¢ $101 5d
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Madison Keys 73¢ $101 7d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin BUY Anhelina Kalinina 85¢ $100 8d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 91¢ $100 10d
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra BUY Caty McNally 88¢ $100 11d
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard BUY Daniil Medvedev 89¢ $100 11d
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 69¢ $101 12d
Ilkley: Elvina Kalieva vs Ashlyn Krueger BUY Ashlyn Krueger 76¢ $101 14d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Shuai Zhang vs Hannah Klugman BUY Shuai Zhang 90¢ $100 16d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 77¢ $101 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 69¢ $101 18d
Tyler: Andres Martin vs Blake Ellis BUY Andres Martin 64¢ $101 19d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda BUY Flavio Cobolli 86¢ $100 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 92¢ $100 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda BUY Francisco Cerundolo 91¢ $100 24d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Alex de Minaur 81¢ $101 25d
Roland Garros ATP: Karen Khachanov vs Marco Trungelliti BUY Karen Khachanov 79¢ $101 27d
Roland Garros WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Aryna Sabalenka 96¢ $100 28d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Toby Samuel BUY Alex de Minaur 91¢ $100 29d
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone BUY Casper Ruud 81¢ $101 32d
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Marco Cecchinato vs Andrea Pellegrin BUY Andrea Pellegrino 65¢ $101 33d
Portland Fire vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 88¢ $100 33d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 73¢ $302 35d
Geneva Open: Sebastian Baez vs Alex Michelsen BUY Sebastian Baez 65¢ $101 36d
Parma: Dayana Yastremska vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Dayana Yastremska 58¢ $101 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $271.95 · official $271.95 (match) · 570 history records