Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x680a…0a15
crypto · 512 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$162 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$99 · open +$61
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$678
Realized+$99
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses212 / 251
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions49
Markets (closed)463 / 512
History coverage41d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 49 History 463 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$214
14 days+$200
30 days+$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $53 $105 +$53 (+100%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $82 $83 +$1 (+2%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? No 97¢ 98¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 97¢ $55 $58 +$3 (+5%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 62¢ 68¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+9%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? No 69¢ 69¢ $31 $32 +$0 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 47¢ 60¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+28%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+7%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce get married by June 30? No 87¢ 93¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 42¢ 40¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 39¢ 88¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+127%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? No 98¢ 99¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 15¢ 8¢ $12 $6 −$6 (-47%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 90¢ 96¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 15%+? No 57¢ 96¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $240 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $202 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 29% −$68
sports 22% +$276
other 21% +$23
world 15% +$31
politics 9% −$22
tech 3% −$12
weather 1% −$85
finance 0% +$14
culture 0% +$2
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 35m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 64¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 3h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 3h
Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher BUY Yes 9¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 3h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3h
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 58¢ $3 4h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 18? BUY No 14¢ $1 4h
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 11¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 261 +0.4% -9.2% 60% 53% -4.9%
≤30d 398 -6.2% -15.1% 51% 39% -8.1%
≤90d 463 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 35% -8.4%
all 463 -6.4% -15.3% 46% 35% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 35% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 32% -17.2%
15% -30.8% 28% -25.2%
20% -37.6% 13% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $678.28 · official $678.25 (match) · 2051 history records