Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:26:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x680d…05ea sports 1191 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 117d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,230 (+3%) realized +$1,230 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate61%722W / 469L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$280est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$226
7 days+$371
14 days+$556
30 days+$307
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$1,210
crypto 16% −$202
other 8% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 51% +0.7%
≤30d 223 -7.7% -16.5% 55% 46% -7.8%
≤90d 878 -4.6% -13.7% 60% 43% -6.6%
all 1191 -5.5% -14.5% 61% 41% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 41% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 30% -16.2%
15% -30.1% 24% -24.3%
20% -37.0% 19% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses722 / 469
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$280
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1191 / 1191
History coverage117d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1191 Trades
no open positions (97 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva Jun 18 $101 +$27 +27%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $32 +$50 +157%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $30 +$23 +77%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $36 +$32 +89%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $30 +$7 +22%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $20 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $65 +$20 +31%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $15 +$6 +38%
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva Jun 17 $51 +$67 +131%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $306 +$111 +36%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -65%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $53 −$28 -52%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $71 −$70 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$12 +113%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $14 +$11 +83%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $32 +$10 +31%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $31 +$23 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +33%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $65 +$21 +32%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 +$3 +14%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $17 +$20 +118%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $20 $0 -2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $15 +$17 +114%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $45 +$60 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$4 +29%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $15 +$19 +124%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $468 +$232 +50%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $44 −$42 -96%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $10 −$3 -26%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$121 +119%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$58 +114%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $51 −$35 -69%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $523 +$188 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 75¢ $60 1h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 84¢ $25 2h
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Gonzalo Villanueva BUY Juan Estevez 84¢ $15 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 7h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $10 10h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 57¢ $10 10h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 36¢ $6 10h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 60¢ $15 10h
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 52¢ $15 11h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 32¢ $15 12h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 83¢ $15 31h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova BUY Susan Bandecchi 80¢ $15 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 92¢ $23 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 51¢ $5 31h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $15 31h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 83¢ $50 33h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 59¢ $15 34h
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 72¢ $15 37h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 45¢ $7 38h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Donna Vekic 50¢ $15 38h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 48¢ $15 38h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 43¢ $15 38h
ITF Haskovo: Anja Stankovic vs Rositsa Dencheva BUY Anja Stankovic 39¢ $20 38h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 73¢ $151 38h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 73¢ $151 38h
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo BUY Xi Luo 65¢ $3 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $55 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records