Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6815…9edb sports 1039 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$189,835 (-14%) realized −$189,952 · open +$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%480W / 549L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,332per market
Trades / day43.0pace
Fees−$14,448est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$3,603now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$21,554
other 30% +$9,676
world 1% −$5,087
crypto 0% +$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 165 +17.8% +6.6% 48% 48% +19.5%
≤30d 581 -1.0% -10.4% 45% 45% -8.1%
≤90d 1029 +0.1% -9.5% 47% 45% -10.7%
all 1029 +0.1% -9.5% 47% 45% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 45% -10.7%
10% -18.1% 44% -19.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.0% 39% -27.0%
20% -33.3% 33% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$587) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,006 vs −$910 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$3,603
Realized−$189,952
Unrealized+$117
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses480 / 549
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$14,448
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1029 / 1039
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$1,332
Trades / day43.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1029 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $3,238 $3,225 −$13 (-0%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 31¢ 66¢ $97 $203 +$106 (+109%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) Milwaukee Brewers 75¢ 98¢ $63 $82 +$20 (+31%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Over 50¢ 55¢ $60 $66 +$6 (+10%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 51¢ 36¢ $9 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 55¢ 46¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 Under 47¢ 40¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-16%)
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) Tampa Bay Rays 73¢ 78¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) Cleveland Guardians 64¢ 83¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+30%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 33¢ 54¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+64%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 48¢ 62¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +26%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $51 +$50 +97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 21 $2 +$1 +62%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $150 +$223 +149%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $164 −$164 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $125 −$125 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $192 +$1,058 +550%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $9 +$16 +165%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $13 +$13 +101%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $34 +$50 +146%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 +$4 +140%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 20 $2 +$2 +116%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $9 −$6 -72%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $89 −$4 -5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $319 +$215 +67%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $3 +$2 +65%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $305 −$305 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-3.5) Jun 20 $82 +$161 +197%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $10 +$6 +57%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $362 −$362 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $18 +$16 +88%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $77 +$47 +60%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 20 $68 +$64 +93%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $527 −$527 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $6 +$3 +60%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $3 +$2 +70%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $28 +$11 +40%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $337 −$337 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $22 −$22 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 12.5 Jun 20 $97 +$27 +28%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1,106 +$1,469 +133%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Houston Astros (-4.5) BUY Cleveland Guardians 64¢ $2 8m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 50¢ $61 10m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 31¢ $99 47m
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $9 1h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 47¢ $6 1h
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 73¢ $4 1h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-3.5) BUY Milwaukee Brewers 75¢ $63 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $1 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 78¢ $4 15h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 39¢ $146 16h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 61¢ $2 16h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 50¢ $51 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 48¢ $125 19h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $4 19h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kevin Borjas 15¢ $192 19h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 40¢ $34 20h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 65¢ $26 20h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $164 21h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 66¢ $67 21h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 26¢ $8 21h
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $3 21h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $32 21h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 27¢ $1 21h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 27¢ $1 22h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Toronto Blue Jays 46¢ $2 22h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $13 22h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 37¢ $9 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $85 23h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 65¢ $5 23h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,603.29 · official $3,603.09 (match) · 3500 history records