Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x6818…8f14 sports 278 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,905 (-17%) realized −$1,846 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%119W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$63
14 days+$73
30 days+$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$29
crypto 47% −$2,017
other 1% +$28
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +18.8% +7.5% 46% 45% -3.4%
≤30d 146 +8.1% -2.2% 43% 42% -6.6%
≤90d 197 -6.8% -15.7% 38% 38% -29.9%
all 273 +1.3% -8.4% 44% 43% -25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 43% -25.2%
10% -17.1% 40% -32.4%
15% -25.1% 38% -38.9%
20% -32.5% 37% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$32 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$1,846
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses119 / 154
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions5
Markets (closed)273 / 278
History coverage129d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Over 58¢ 58¢ $74 $74 +$0 (+0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs SPARTA 33¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs TDK 32¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 85 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 17 $80 −$5 -7%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $15 −$15 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $41 +$35 +86%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $19 −$19 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$7 +139%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 +$19 +91%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $180 +$43 +24%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $40 −$27 -68%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $110 +$11 +10%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 −$14 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$6 -29%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 −$4 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $3 +$4 +129%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 +$5 +134%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$5 +165%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$3 +70%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $6 +$4 +73%
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$5 +152%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$2 -10%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +86%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $3 +$5 +165%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$5 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $22 −$7 -33%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $49 +$40 +82%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$2 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta SELL SPARTA 49¢ $75 1h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 51¢ $80 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 35¢ $19 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 32¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 31¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl BUY K27 51¢ $15 9h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 53¢ $41 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 31¢ $10 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 36¢ $9 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 49¢ $20 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 15h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3 17h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $12 17h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 35¢ $4 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $5 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 44¢ $6 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner SELL illwill 99¢ $39 26h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 99¢ $152 27h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 59¢ $12 27h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch SELL Gentle Mates 16¢ $12 27h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 56¢ $76 27h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner SELL Gentle Mates 48¢ $71 27h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 60¢ $46 27h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner BUY illwill 51¢ $20 28h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Gentle Mates 61¢ $47 28h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner SELL illwill 50¢ $117 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.98 · official $93.98 (match) · 707 history records