Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
68 0x6819…12ba crypto 514 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$32 (+0%) realized +$28 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%491W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day22.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$6
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1
politics 4% +$10
other 1% +$3
finance 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 1% -9.4%
≤30d 505 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 505 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 1% -9.4%
all 505 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 1% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$14 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses491 / 14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)505 / 514
History coverage24d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day22.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 505 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 93¢ 100¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? Up 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be greater than 85%? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 12%+? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election be less than 70%? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 96¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+5%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $12 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 29 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? Jun 29 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? Jun 29 $20 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5AM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,600 on June 28? Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8PM ET Jun 29 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $14 +$1 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 29 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 29? BUY Up 98¢ $20 36m
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 3h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 29? BUY Down 95¢ $20 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 98¢ $20 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 29? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 29? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 29? BUY No 97¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 29, 10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 7AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 9h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $172.70 · official $172.45 (match) · 1012 history records