Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

68
0x6819…7213
other · 257 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$87 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$86 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$63
Realized−$86
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 240
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)256 / 257
History coverage130d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 1 History 256 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$28
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $63 $63 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $318 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $936 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $156 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $317 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $238 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $256 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $133 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $199 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $302 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $162 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $763 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $413 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $667 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $333 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $67 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $140 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $829 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 06 $917 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $339 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $215 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $427 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $398 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $963 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $281 −$2 -1%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $319 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 01 $191 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 01 $166 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $168 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $381 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $274 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $222 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $429 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $808 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 29 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $218 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 27 $74 $0 -1%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $422 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? May 27 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $153 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 50% −$39
sports 20% −$18
politics 8% −$7
economics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$7
crypto 4% −$4
world 4% −$5
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $63 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 4h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $50 11h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 13h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $63 18h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 19h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $63 22h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $63 24h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $63 28h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $63 31h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 31h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 33h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 38h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 39h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $64 41h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $64 42h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $64 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $65 3d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 256 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.81 · official $62.81 (match) · 1385 history records