Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:18:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x681a…f63a crypto 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$249 (+4%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate65%59W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day117.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$259
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 36% -9.3%
≤30d 91 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 36% -9.3%
≤90d 91 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 36% -9.3%
all 91 -6.7% -15.6% 65% 36% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 36% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 23% -18.0%
15% -31.0% 12% -25.9%
20% -37.8% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 38% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$30 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses59 / 32
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage4d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day117.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 76¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $125 $0 −$125 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $137 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $228 −$54 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $151 −$14 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $178 +$44 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $107 +$27 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $82 +$29 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $208 +$47 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$8 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $101 −$16 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $31 −$3 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $51 −$19 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $182 −$35 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $202 +$14 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $356 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$78 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $116 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $177 +$26 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $166 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $127 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $179 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $177 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $279 +$18 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $228 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $127 +$15 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $229 −$18 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $128 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $128 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $153 +$23 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $103 +$19 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$5 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$5 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $45 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $29 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $27 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $53 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $55 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $29 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $19 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $102 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $29 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 511 history records