trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +8.7% | -1.6% | 33% | 33% | +1.5% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +8.7% | -1.6% | 33% | 33% | +1.5% |
| ≤90d | 3 | +8.7% | -1.6% | 33% | 33% | +1.5% |
| all | 23 | -22.6% | -30.0% | 39% | 35% | -53.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -30.0% | 35% | -53.9% |
| 10% | -36.7% | 26% | -58.3% |
| 15% | -42.8% | 22% | -62.4% |
| 20% | -48.4% | 17% | -66.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Zcash reach $1100 by December 31, 2026? | Yes | 28¢ | 14¢ | $184 | $94 | −$91 (-49%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 3¢ | 3¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+3%) |
| Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? | Yes | 9¢ | 8¢ | $10 | $9 | −$1 (-6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $32 | +$72 | +226% |
| Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $7 | −$7 | -97% |
| Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $55 | −$53 | -97% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on January 16? | Jan 16 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in January? | Jan 16 | $191 | −$183 | -96% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by March 31, 2026? | Jan 16 | $1 | $0 | -14% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Jan 16 | $1 | $0 | -32% |
| ASB Classic: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Jakub Mensik | Jan 16 | $1 | +$1 | +72% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 15 | $44 | −$44 | -100% |
| Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings? | Jan 15 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Jan 15 | $5 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | Jan 15 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? | Jan 14 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January? | Jan 14 | $9 | +$4 | +50% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? | Jan 14 | $20 | +$14 | +68% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January? | Jan 14 | $20 | +$2 | +12% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January? | Jan 14 | $20 | +$6 | +30% |
| Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday? | Jan 14 | $5 | $0 | -0% |
| Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | Jan 14 | $15 | +$8 | +55% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? | Jan 14 | $20 | −$2 | -8% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 14 | $29 | −$29 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7AM ET | Jan 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |