Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
68 0x681e…7ad9 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge! high turnover
Total PnL −$61 (-14%) realized −$13 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$283now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$48
finance 17% −$29
crypto 17% −$23
other 11% +$8
tech 5% −$13
economics 1% +$26
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +30.9% +18.4% 33% 33% -63.4%
≤30d 6 +30.9% +18.4% 33% 33% -63.4%
≤90d 6 +30.9% +18.4% 33% 33% -63.4%
all 6 +30.9% +18.4% 33% 33% -63.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.4% 33% -63.4%
10% +7.1% 33% -66.9%
15% -3.3% 33% -70.1%
20% -12.7% 17% -73.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt -60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$283
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions18
Markets (closed)6 / 24
History coverage4d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $105 $105 −$0 (-0%)
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-1%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 3¢ 25¢ $3 $30 +$26 (+788%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $50 $26 −$24 (-48%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $37 $13 −$24 (-66%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 36¢ 48¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+32%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-31%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? No 18¢ 7¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-59%)
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-18%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 16¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-80%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 22¢ 8¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +535%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 42¢ $16 41m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 42m
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco BUY Yes 60¢ $41 2h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 47¢ $34 2h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 34¢ $8 26h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 34¢ $10 26h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco BUY Yes 58¢ $51 26h
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen BUY Yes 34¢ $3 27h
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the seco BUY Yes 58¢ $15 27h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 20¢ $3 43h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 20¢ $9 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 82¢ $7 43h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $4 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit? BUY No 14¢ $2 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $39 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $5 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $41 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 12¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4d
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $282.80 · official $282.63 (match) · 47 history records