Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
68 0x6823…1b03 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$36 (+29%) realized +$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR83%break-even
Win rate83%5W / 1L
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$19
crypto 21% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +83%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +29.4% +17.1% 83% 83% +16.7%
≤30d 6 +29.4% +17.1% 83% 83% +16.7%
≤90d 6 +29.4% +17.1% 83% 83% +16.7%
all 6 +29.4% +17.1% 83% 83% +16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 83% +16.7%
10% +5.9% 83% +5.5%
15% -4.4% 83% -4.7%
20% -13.7% 50% -14.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.82 per $1 lost it wins $2.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses5 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $42 +$18 +43%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$17 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $16 +$10 +61%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +59%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$5 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 38h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $15 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records