trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 91¢ | 90¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | Up | 48¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET | Up | 70¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 24¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | Down | 11¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET | Down | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $932 | −$4 | -0% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -10% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET | Jun 13 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 13 | $10 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $18 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 10 | $10 | $0 | -2% |
| Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 10 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 07 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 07 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 07 | $1 | $0 | -4% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | May 24 | $1 | $0 | -9% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | May 24 | $2 | −$1 | -32% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | May 24 | $2 | +$1 | +27% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | May 24 | $2 | −$2 | -96% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET | May 24 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET | May 23 | $1 | $0 | -31% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET | May 23 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET | May 23 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET | May 23 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | May 23 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET | May 23 | $1 | +$2 | +236% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET | May 23 | $2 | −$1 | -48% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Jan 31 | $1 | $0 | +22% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Dec 11 | $1 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 07 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 10 | -23.3% | -30.6% | 0% | 0% | -10.2% |
| ≤30d | 22 | -23.4% | -30.7% | 18% | 14% | -10.5% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -23.4% | -30.7% | 18% | 14% | -10.5% |
| all | 25 | -19.4% | -27.1% | 28% | 16% | -10.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -27.1% | 16% | -10.5% |
| 10% | -34.0% | 8% | -19.1% |
| 15% | -40.4% | 4% | -26.9% |
| 20% | -46.3% | 4% | -34.0% |