Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
68 0x6825…8464 world 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 253d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%14W / 23L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% +$1
other 24% −$1
politics 13% $0
culture 11% $0
sports 8% +$25
economics 5% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 23% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 +0.0% -9.5% 23% 0% -9.5%
all 37 +8.8% -1.6% 38% 5% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 5% -7.4%
10% -11.0% 3% -16.2%
15% -19.6% 3% -24.3%
20% -27.5% 3% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×7.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×10.78 per $1 lost it wins $10.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses14 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage253d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $43 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $43 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $43 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $43 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $18 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $40 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $36 $0 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $14 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 06 $1 $0 +21%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Nov 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will Heather Humphreys win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 14 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 13 $23 $0 -1%
Will Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere win Best Picture at the 98th Oct 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 12 $40 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Oct 11 $47 $0 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Oct 11 $8 +$25 +302%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Oct 10 $18 $0 +1%
James Comey arrested by October 31? Oct 10 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 9? Oct 09 $17 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 09 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 68¢ $44 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $43 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $8 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $39 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $4 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $43 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 84¢ $43 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $42 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $42 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $43 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $43 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $19 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $2 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $40 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $40 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $36 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $23 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 38¢ $18 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $42 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $15 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $23 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $38 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records